User talk:FPA Forever

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Hello!

Hey there, just wanted to say welcome, and thanks in advance for your contributions. If you have any questions, feel free to leave a message on my talk page (or any other talk page, for that matter) :)  ♥ kine @ 00:42, 12 December 2011 (UTC)

Ideal to Fight For story

As some of you know, I'm doing an Alliance-centric story. I want to make it a somewhat more realistic story, where the Alliance isn't entirely doomed and where there are some people still trying to save it. However, I also don't want the characters to behave outside of their basic personality. Yang, at the core, should still be Yang, Attenborough should still be Attenborough, etc. So if I seem to be going the wrong way with a character, please tell me, that'd be a great help. FPA Forever

Also, I'm really open to ideas about what should happen in later chapters. Just remember, this'll be an Alliance story, the Empire will remain a more nebulous (but very dangerous) enemy and won't be detailled as much. The Empire-centric story will be AFTER this one is done. :)

Well how would you generally like it to end? For example I have ideas for an Alliance victory or Imperial victory or a continued stalemate. Which one are you looking for? Strayor 03:44, 1 May 2014 (UTC)

I was more going for Yang managing to force a situation which would allow the Alliance breathing room and time to recover. What did you have in mind for an Alliance Victory and Stalemate? (Imperial Victory will come in the Imperial-centric story)

It depends on where you think further divergences will go as a result of the existing changes. Will lesser Alliance losses in their invasion mean there is less discontent within the military for a coup? Or will it mean a coup has greater supporters and ends up with greater military forces? If there is no coup for Reinhard to instigate, then there is the risk of the Alliance intervening in any Imperial civil war, even if it is as simple as snatching some systems. It would risk turning into a 3 way war. If the Alliance intervenes by choosing sides in the Imperial civil war, who do they choose? Do they choose one of the high nobles and run into the same cognitive dissonance and hypocrisy of when they canonically aided the Goldenbaum government in exile? Would Yang end up aiding the noble faction if that is what the Alliance government chooses? If the Alliance sides with Reinhard, then it would truly be a cakewalk all over the nobles. Finally there is what is Fezzan doing during all this? Do they continue as they canonically did with a new plan of aiming to overthrow the balance of power? Or do they adhere to the old Terraist plan of prolonging the war by ensuring no side gains too much advantage? Many questions and possibilities and it depends on where you want the story to go. Iracundus 08:37, 1 May 2014 (UTC)

As for the other fleet commanders who in this story survived the invasion, they'll take their cue mostly from Bucock. Yes, Yang was by far the most effective in combat, but it was Bucock who took command and crafted a unified front which allowed 60% of the Combined Fleet to survive (defeated, damaged, but it survived). Bucock is by no means a happy camper, but he's by no means intending to allow a coup. Instead, I see Reinhard sending Lynch as a decoy, and in this case sending other people to sabotage, derail, paraluze aspects of the Alliance Fleet to keep its involvement to a minimal level. The Alliance will be too concerned about these chronic problems to send massive forces against the Empire, even though its a far better moment than the initial invasion to actually send forces in.

However, Bucock being Bucock, he'll manage to use Yang's status as a hero and his own good reputation to allow Yang's Iserlohn Fleet - 15,000 ships - to 'harrass, reduce and/or damage Imperial efforts to shorten the Imperial Civil War'. With aid from the Alliance Intelligence Division (with Baghdash being the Intelligence representative sent), Yang will have only his fleet and Iserlohn's ressources, but he'll also be able to fully use these ressources to be as much a pain in the ass to the Imperial Forces fighting the war. Obviously, and rightly, Yang will guess that Reinhard's forces will win in the end, so he'll focus his efforts (sabotage, strategic strikes against supply chains, and even taking out three small rearguard garrison fleets) on the Lohengramm Faction.

My take? Reinhard WILL win the Civil War. I never doubted that outcome, because although I see Merkatz and Fahrenheit using Yang's strikes to his advantage, the nobles will eventually screw things up badly enough that Lohengramm's generally more competent and experienced forces will win the day. However, the Imperial Civil War will be quite a bit longer due to Yang's carefully chosen strikes. My question is, how much should it be slowed. How much would Yang's efforts lengthen the Imperial Civil War?

Things that I know will happen so far in my story: 1) Dwight Greenhill, already reluctant in the OTL, doesn't join the disgruntled officers. 2) The Fleet Commanders who went on the Imperial Invasion will stick to the government, but will be cynical about future orders. 3) Lynch is still released and sent to make trouble. 4) Rebello and Lewi split from their party with several others and create their own political faction, which is centrist compared to the Right-Wing 'Trunicht Faction' and the more Left-Wing 'Peace Party'. 5) The Imperial side of things is barely altered, so the Imperial Civil War is inevitable. So what do you think? FPA Forever

If Dwight Greenhill doesn't join the coup, then I don't see the coup getting as far as it did as it was due to his position that allowed coup forces to be positioned in strategic places to take control under the guise of training exercises. The biggest question then that remains is if the coup is short or non-existent, then what does the Alliance government do in response to the death of Friedrich IV, and the ensuing Imperial civil war. Iracundus 07:06, 2 May 2014 (UTC)

As for what constitutes "Alliance victory" or "stalemate"? I think a sustainable stalemate would require Fezzan to revert to maintaining the balance of power as otherwise Alliance society cannot sustain even the old kind of prolonged conflict with the Goldenbaum dynasty let alone the high losses it suffers in any form of conflict with Reinhard. An alternative stalemate would be Reinhard enacting his plan B of carving up Fezzan with the Alliance if the Alliance rejected Erwin Joseph seeking asylum. The main benefit to the Alliance would be the relief of its crushing debt burden, and then perhaps some sort of standoff against Reinhard. Alliance victory is much harder to quantify I think because realistically the exhausted Alliance has no hope of successfully invading or integrating the entirety of the Empire. A prolonged inconclusive Imperial civil war might end up giving the Alliance a breather, or alternatively if one of the high nobles ended up winning the civil war and became Kaiser, the restoration of mostly incompetent nobles to positions of military power might mean they dash themselves unsuccessfully against the Alliance-held Iserlohn Fortress. The main victory I see for the Alliance is the opportunity for internal reform and rejuvenation, rather than outward military expansion. Iracundus 02:03, 3 May 2014 (UTC)

As for the other fleet commanders who in this story survived the invasion, they'll take their cue mostly from Bucock. Yes, Yang was by far the most effective in combat, but it was Bucock who took command and crafted a unified front which allowed 60% of the Combined Fleet to survive (defeated, damaged, but it survived). Bucock is by no means a happy camper, but he's by no means intending to allow a coup. Instead, I see Reinhard sending Lynch as a decoy, and in this case sending other people to sabotage, derail, paraluze aspects of the Alliance Fleet to keep its involvement to a minimal level. The Alliance will be too concerned about these chronic problems to send massive forces against the Empire, even though its a far better moment than the initial invasion to actually send forces in.

However, Bucock being Bucock, he'll manage to use Yang's status as a hero and his own good reputation to allow Yang's Iserlohn Fleet - 15,000 ships - to 'harrass, reduce and/or damage Imperial efforts to shorten the Imperial Civil War'. With aid from the Alliance Intelligence Division (with Baghdash being the Intelligence representative sent), Yang will have only his fleet and Iserlohn's ressources, but he'll also be able to fully use these ressources to be as much a pain in the ass to the Imperial Forces fighting the war. Obviously, and rightly, Yang will guess that Reinhard's forces will win in the end, so he'll focus his efforts (sabotage, strategic strikes against supply chains, and even taking out three small rearguard garrison fleets) on the Lohengramm Faction.

My take? Reinhard WILL win the Civil War. I never doubted that outcome, because although I see Merkatz and Fahrenheit using Yang's strikes to his advantage, the nobles will eventually screw things up badly enough that Lohengramm's generally more competent and experienced forces will win the day. However, the Imperial Civil War will be quite a bit longer due to Yang's carefully chosen strikes. My question is, how much should it be slowed. How much would Yang's efforts lengthen the Imperial Civil War? FPA Forever

There is the cognitive disconnect of the Alliance aiding the Goldenbaum nobles but I guess if the canonical timeline has the Alliance taking in the Goldenbaum government in exile, the Alliance indirectly aiding the nobles wouldn't be out of the question. The Alliance raiding the Empire would likely mean the diversion of military forces to at least guard against further attacks, which would drain forces from the civil war and prolong things that way. The biggest single thing Yang could do to prolong the civil war is probably the interception or prevention (intentionally or not) of the nuclear attack against Westerland. That was the single act that decisively turned the Empire's population against the nobles. Prior to that, the general population was probably indifferent to what must have seemed to them just one of the many rebellions and internal conflicts between nobles in the Empire's history. Without the undeniable evidence of a nuclear attack (a failed attack can still be plausibly denied and written off as enemy propaganda), the Lippstadt League would have had fewer defections, and Geiersberg Fortress would not have fallen as quickly as it did. Also even if the nobles do lose in the end, there might still be more residual support in the population for the old status quo. The problem ultimately however is how this progresses the meta-narrative because in such a scenario Yang just prolongs things, and the Alliance cannot win large lasting military conquests against the Empire even with more of its fleets preserved. The Alliance already squandered and lost any good will they might have won among the frontier systems they occupied earlier. Yang's intervention on the "losing" side of the civil war could also give casus belli for Reinhard to later attack the Alliance, much as canonically taking in the Goldenbaum government in exile did. The Alliance would still be stuck on its ruinous trajectory of excessive military spending, adventurism, and turning into a fascistic society in all but name (driven by the excuse of the external enemy of the Empire). Therefore Alliance "victory" must I think focus on the political and domestic side of things, not merely the military. The idea is still workable but just some things to think about when shaping the story. Iracundus 22:29, 4 May 2014 (UTC)

Its going to be intensely about the political and domestic side of things. Rebello and Hwan are putting together a new party with their own excellent connections to challenge Trunicht in the political arena. The PKC will eventually be labelled a military threat, enabling the military forces to legally tackle them. The Shadow Group that controls many Alliance interests will of course get involved.

As for Reinhard, well, the Civil War will be a LOT more damaging here than it was in the OTL. Its going to last from June 797 to May 799. He lets not forget he gets sicker and sicker from 799 to 801, and then dies. Yang doesn't know, but prolonging things would help greatly in negating the Lohengramm threat. In short, Reinhard von Lohengramm isn't going to be the star, here. Its Alliance-centered. FPA Forever

Curious to see how this Shadow Group thing pans out. In particular curious as to how the Battle of Dagon nearly ruined them. Iracundus 07:37, 6 May 2014 (UTC)

The one thing I never liked was that the Empire was loaded with so many advantages that it was nothing short of loaded dice at times. It became even worse whenever Reinhard entered the fray.

In this story, I intend to somewhat level the playing field, without making Yang or Reinhard the 'Gods' they were in the OTL. They'll be extremely skilled commanders, geniuses in some ways, but in no way perfect. In Dionysus in my story, for instance, both Reinhard and Yang were at times sucker-punched, or suprised, or sometimes found themselves out of immediate options.

So short of murdering Reinhard outright, how would anyone suggest leveling things up without making either side having a ridiculous advantage? Does the Alliance have ANYTHING better than the Empire, anything that could greatly help if used properly? I don't want a curbstomp.

Curbtstomping and near-complete dominance made the 4th season of LOGH far less interesting, as with Yang dead, nobody really could measure up as an obstacle to Reinhard, and I don't want that here, on either side. FPA Forever

The Alliance had higher per capita productivity due to the inefficiencies of the Goldenbaum Empire but this would not be such a big issue if the power of the nobles is broken as they were locking up or embezzling a lot of the wealth and resources of the Empire for their own private gain or expended in power struggles. If there are lingering Lippstadt or noble power bases or support then the Empire has more resources tied up, or if more Lippstadt forces were destroyed as opposed to surrendering then the Empire would have less to work with. The other key player would be Fezzan switching back to preserving the balance of power. That was why the Terraists wanted to eliminate Yang as he stood the best chance of blocking Reinhard's unification of all known space. If Fezzan wanted to preserve the balance I see them targeting Reinhard (since Yang lacks the will to take over as a dictator) or supporting the Lippstadt nobles. Even if Reinhard is not killed, Fezzan could still cause trouble by leaking intelligence data or technology (such as the directional Seffle particle generator).

As for actual military advantage, there is little. The Alliance has made do with less and reached about rough parity in technology and capabilities. In One Hundred Billion Stars..., it is mentioned that the 5th Battle of Iserlohn demonstrated the Alliance at that time still had a slight edge in maneuvering fleets compared to the Goldenbaum commanders, but this may not hold true as compared to Reinhard's commanders. It may still hold true for any garrison fleets commanded by mediocrities. The Alliance fighter doctrine also seems to slightly favor more use of fighters in an offensive role even though the carriers seem incredibly fragile with their half open construction, while the Empire seems to have fighters as an adjunct and their carriers were a reactive response to the Alliance's pioneer use of large fleet carriers. At best this seems a doctrine or slight tactical difference rather than a significant edge. Iracundus 00:28, 8 May 2014 (UTC)

What I want, without a definite, absolute 'win' like the Empire's in the OTL (which was so absolute that I found it annoying and a trifle illogical), I'd like Yang to leave the Alliance in a stronger relative position compared to when he left it, enough so that the Empire wouldn't win for at least several décades after Yang would retire. The Epilogue, I already know, will be set around 845 UC, and I want the Alliance to still be there. It won't be a perfect time, with both sides riddled with chronic problems. The peace treaty Yang optimistically wished for at Seventh Iserlohn won't have materialized, as the two sides would have entered a lengthy truce. By 845 UC, people Inside the Alliance and the Empire would be saber-rattling, with cooler heads still prevailing, barely, but with a new military buildup starting. By this time, Yang will no longer care about the conflict, figuring he's done his bit and leaving it to others to figure it out.

But by the Epilogue, the Alliance is still around, and able to hold its own if the truce broke. Now, how do you think this can be made to happen, logically, with no Deus Ex Machina. In my story, after all, Yang's stronger stance instead of almost constant passivity in the OTL will have a domino effect, inspiring some others to fight in different ways, hence the name: An Ideal To Fight For. This is about a society waking up because of one man making more of a stand than he normally would have.

So, what do you think would need to happen? Any ideas? FPA Forever

The issue of the Empire and Fezzan must be addressed. What is the final state of the Empire if Reinhard dies of his disease in 801 UC? Is there a succession plan in place? If not, then I can see the risk of warlordism appearing between reformist and old status quo nobility factions if the Lippstadt League has any residual support. If Westerland never happens, then they might. Also if Westerland never occurs, Reinhard might not have gotten together with Hilda, meaning no baby Alex. If the Empire goes through another period of civil war or even a semi-permanent fracturing, then the Alliance would get a breather. Most of Reinhard's subordinates at the end of the day are military men, with little political experience or interest. Some of them might still want a war with the Alliance as war offers them a chance for career advancement (which is the driving motivation behind Grillparzer, Sombart, and Thurneysen) but they could get their war with a civil war, and also they would not have the sheer concentrated military advantage of having the entire Empire's resources at their disposal. If the Goldenbaums got back control (or some coalition of old guard nobility and reformists), the war with the Alliance would resume on ideological grounds since the Alliance by definition are "rebels" and because the war again offers an outlet for the nobles to strut around and gain more political power (and embezzle wealth).

Fezzan's actions as I have already said would also be critical as Rubinsky was trying to overturn the balance of power. For situations to return to some sort of balance, Rubinsky either has to change his mind or get replaced. Fezzan's economic stranglehold also means the Alliance is straining under a huge debt burden which constrains what spending and reforms can be done even by well meaning Alliance politicians. Simply repudiating the debt or nationalizing assets is likely not an option for the Alliance, unless they want to trigger economic instability and uncertainty from the private sector. After all, why risk doing business if the government may decide to step in and seize everything at any time?

There is the final issue of the Alliance military. Iserlohn Fortress remaining in Alliance hands would mean an end to the endless Imperial raids and expeditions of the past. However the Alliance military spending and its voracious consumption of all resources and human talent is the bigger issue. The Empire has been set up as the big evil enemy in propaganda for so long, even the military buys into it. The NSMC while wanting to sweep away the corruption of the civilian government, was looking essentially to replace it with a military junta to channel even more resources to rebuild the military in order to carry on the war with the Empire. The Alliance fought originally to preserve its independence and way of life, but the sacrifices and compromises it has made means there is less and less of that to preserve. The military industrial complex of the Alliance appears out of control, and it may be politically costly to suggest budget cutbacks due to the economic effects on communities reliant on military contracts and also on the PR issue of appearing to let down veterans that have served the country. 22:38, 11 May 2014 (UTC)

Well, Rebello and Hwan are going to take most of the moderates and the few liberals in their party and form a new party, which Bucock and Yang (the latter reluctantly and only because he sees Trunicht as the worst possible man to put in charge of the Alliance) will support it. Private financing that Rebello knows through his contacts will allow it to compete on a moderate Platform, calling for a return to defensive operations only, not to peace (which isn't popular at this point), or to assault (which lost most support. Rebello will target the tired, middle-ground population and those tired of the clashes between 'War Party' and 'Peace Party'. The PKC will be a problem, but HQ Chief Kubersly will send trusted Special Forces unit out, in plain clothes, to ensure things proceed smoothly. Irregular, but Kubersly would be well aware of the corruption, and would decide to take a risk.

To me, this would be a good, credible opponent for Trunicht, no? He's a great snake and politician, but his party has taken a hit, and he'd be stuck with people who voted FOR the Invasion in the first place making up the bulk of his party. FPA Forever

So Kubersly doesn't get shot by Falk? As for Trunicht, I don't think he was ever truly "War Party" (or whatever the real party name is), and was always more opportunist jumping aboard whatever path would advance himself. Remember he hedged his bet by voting against the invasion, despite being Secretary of Defense. Afterwards, when he became High Council Chairman, all the other members except Rebello were effectively Trunicht's lackeys. I think Trunicht only supported the war party line because he had the PKC and because he could use the excuse of patriotism/nationalism to clamp down on free speech (i.e. anyone opposing whatever Trunicht wants). The true hardline pro-war people are probably more the NSMC people. Legrange strikes me as one of these genuine true believers. I think the reason the war party got so powerful in the first place is because past invasions and the threat of future invasions have kept the Alliance in a climate of fear, not to mention the Empire historically was the evil bogeyman that the Alliance founders fled from. Even if the propaganda has worn thin after so many decades for the average person, it cannot be denied that the Empire did invade multiple times so it may genuinely be hard to argue for a lasting peace treaty as opposed to an unofficial "Cold War" stand-off, or against yet more militarization to replace the Alliance fleet losses. However it could also be hard to argue why the Alliance should intervene at all in an Imperial civil war, instead of letting the nobles intrigue and fight it out among themselves. Of course there is this Shadow Group and whatever goal they are after. Iracundus 06:50, 13 May 2014 (UTC)

First off, I apologize for my belatedness but I have been incredibly busy these last two weeks. Also, I need to mention that I have only read FPA Forever's posts to keep my own viewpoint free of influence from Iracundus, because let's be honest, he's almost always right about anything LOGH related and after reading his posts I would likely be inclined to agree with what he said. So, keeping that in mind, this is my postulation of possibilities that would allow you to arrive at your goal of having a stalemate in 845 UC between the Alliance and Empire.

The option I would recommend is to go with the new party idea you have, with Bucock leading the military brass, and Yang, into general alignment with Rebelo's new moderate party. I suggest that this comes not after the coup, but before, and have it be used as the main cause for the building animosities between the so called peace and war parties, especially when/if the peace party aligns itself with Rebelo. The war party is further and further isolated, leading to a breaking point, which of course would be Lynch who had been working to join together the disgruntled soldiers and sailors towards a coup. As far as Greenhill, remember he only joined the coup in order to prevent it from spiraling out of control. So if he were in the same position when the new coup came about at a later date, he would likely act in a similar fashion. The way to fix this is with the invasion of the Empire. I say that the moment that should be the beginning of the diverging timeline is when Bucock is requesting Lobos order the withdrawal before it's too late. Lobos was napping and Greenhill was the one speaking with Bucock. When I first saw this particular scene I remember drawing comparisons with Hitler and when Rommel could not get permission to mobilize units because Hitler was napping during the Normandy landings. I also remember thinking that just as that was the final chance for Germany to prolong the war in any meaningful way, that must have been the last chance for the Alliance to prolong the war in any meaningful way. That brings about another point that should be addressed real quick: the Alliance's fate was sealed after Ashbey was killed. They could only hope to prolong the war after that, simply because a united Empire can outproduce, outman, and outgun the Alliance, which was already straining under the weight of the long war. By the time of the invasion, Rebelo makes it clear that the Alliance is exceeding its limits. This brings Fezzan into the picture, but I'll go over that in a bit. That point aside, I think you have Greenhill take some kind of action after his conversation with Bucock, allowing him to be reprimanded by Lobos but his action(s) still saved the remaining fleets, the 5th, 8th, and 13th if I recall. With those fleets and the 1st and 11th, again if I correctly recall, and Iserlohn, the Alliance should be able to adequately defend both corridors and allow your Alliance centric story to take place.

The coup should be triggered after the pro-war politicians and military feel they are forced to act for fear of total isolation and removal from politics. The PKC stages a large number of attacks. Falk shoots Kubersly and everything starts. In response, the NSMC moves to secure key facilities for "protection" while the PKC goes on to target the anti-coup power holders. Greenhill would not get involved because of his celebrity status after undermining Lobos to save a few fleets. He would likely still be under court-martial or awaiting trial and he would want to see that through to its resolution. As you said the coup will not last too long without the leadership of Greenhill and would only work to further solidify the moderate party's position. However, here is where I think you may have misjudged something. Trunicht is not outwardly anything except for politician. He is capable of riding any wave of bureaucracy for his own advancement, beit an autocracy or democracy. Because of this, there is no way that I see him holding firm with the war party after the coup, or that he was even pro-war at all, only wanting it for his own advancement. He only used the PKC for his own benefit as with Terraism, and he never showed any true adherence to either's ideals. Because of this I think he should remain very much in play in the story, as he would surely attempt to pass himself off as a moderate to garner the most public support, and even though Rebelo, Bucock, Greenhill, and Yang can all see through it, there is little to stop Trunicht, unless you want to have one of those characters, or someone affiliated with them, take drastic action that would surely be illegal and dishonorable, something I doubt any would partake in. This way, you still have an antagonist within the Alliance political structure and it is not a single party but Rebelo's moderates and Trunicht's party following a perverted version of Rebelo's logic.

Next is Fezzan and Terraism. Rubinsky was already holding plans to destabilize the situation, and honestly many of those close to him were attempting to do the same thing. So, noting that, I think you should have Fezzan be conquered by Reinhard after he wins the Civil War. It really doesn't matter what level of involvement the Alliance plays in the conflict, Reinhard would win. I also think Markatz and Fahrenheit would still end up where they did, and the nobles would still lose all support even without Westerland, simply because their views of human rights were archaic and at times barbaric. While that was true for much of the Empire's history, it is clear that the Imperial citizenry, now given rights by Reinhard, would see the clustering of nobles and how they treated their subjects as a common cause and move to support Reinhard. The noble supporters would have the means to flee to Fezzan and then defect to the Alliance. The nobles that were capable and fair rulers would not be targeted by Reinhard, and seeing such justice after witnessing little would have Reinhard be just as popular one way or another. Since you want the Civil War lengthened, then having Reinhard stop Westerland seems like the best option, but even if the Alliance intervened, you can't hope to realistically portray the Lipstadt League surviving through 798 UC. There's just no way short of killing Reinhard. However, when he wins and eventually invades, have Fezzan be conquered but since the Alliance now has more strength and eliminated debt, they should be able to neutralize the Empire's larger numbers in the corridors. They may not even need to reinforce Iserlohn. In this way you may be able to force a stalemate until Reinhard dies, but there's a few other things that could help it along. Unfortunately I ran out of time typing this up but I will finish what I have started here later today or tomorrow. Strayor 18:07, 13 May 2014 (UTC)

One thing to consider is the internal structure of the Alliance. Although Heinessen stands at 1 billion, a small-population world like El Facil at 3 million, and a frontier, largely failed colony like Econia at 100,000, how big should other main worlds be, such at the ones the NSMC took over? Are they all as corrupt as Heinessen had become, you think? And how does Heinessen manage to control the FPA, given its only 1 world and its only 7.6% of its population? FPA Forever