User talk:FPA Forever

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Mutation of Titles

Could you please tell me more how my titles mutated? Thats easy to change. FPA Forever

In earlier chapters, you referred to them as Secretary of Finance etc., while in this latest chapter they are referred to as Minister of Finance. Just noticed that inconsistency. Iracundus 03:24, 14 July 2014 (UTC)
Darn. Didn't see that. I got things mixed up because I had Lichtenlade in the mix. I'll fix it. Thanks! FPA Forever


Hey there, just wanted to say welcome, and thanks in advance for your contributions. If you have any questions, feel free to leave a message on my talk page (or any other talk page, for that matter) :)  ♥ kine @ 00:42, 12 December 2011 (UTC)

Ideal to Fight For story

Well, Westerland will be stopped and the endgame of the Imperial Civil War will be slightly longer, cost more ships on both sides, and otherwise not be as neatly ended as in the OTL. Which makes me Wonder if I could start showing snippets from Merkatz' POV. Its an Alliance-driven story, but HE will be in the Alliance eventually, and will participate to the main story.
I've always found the population and material drain irrealistic, since the Empire is never shown having any of that. Yes, it has larger population, but it also has a larger fleet. So what do you think? Minimize the Alliance drain, or show that there IS an Imperial drain?
As for Iserlohn's fate, its too soon to say. I've got several options I'm considering.
Thoughts? FPA Forever
Merkatz's POV is about the only way you could really examine the Imperial civil war unless you take the form of dry intelligence reports to the Alliance. If the ending of the civil war is less clean, and the Lippstadt nobles' cause not as entirely discredited among the general population, then there may be lingering Goldenbaum sympathizers. Merkatz's internal motivations were always one of those things that was never as explicitly explored in the OTL series, with a lot of it implicit, based on the idea of the old loyal retainer, faithful to the very end to his oath of loyalty even though he knows his cause is hopeless.
I think the main material and personnel exhaustion from the Alliance really got rolling from all the wasteful failed attacks on Iserlohn. We see the Alliance fleets get mauled multiple times in just 3 years and that is just the 5th and 6th attacks (plus 3rd and 4th Tiamat), yet they are built back up to full strength by the start of the main OVA series. This means a lot of material resources and personnel being drawn from the rest of society to accomplish this rapid rebuilding. Overall if you look at the timeline of the war, the size and tempo of operations increases over time, not helped by the fact the Empire was on the strategic offensive and could effectively dictate the pace of operations. The Alliance was always in a reactive defensive role strategically to play on its knowledge of the terrain and also shorter supply lines. Dagon and Kornelias I's expedition took place 28 years apart, and 2nd Tiamat was the big battle of Ashbey's generation. Yet by 792 UC, the Iserlohn battles are routinely happening with 30,000+ ships on the Alliance side. The Alliance was hurling itself in a frenzy against this forward base and expended strength it could not afford. If Iserlohn had never been built, the old back and forth fighting might have continued and while still draining would not have been as terrible for the Alliance.
The Goldenbaum Empire I would argue was no longer trying to win and its expeditions were serving as just another political move to strengthen one's political position (noble and emperor/kaiser alike), so they were never committing irreplaceable forces. If an expedition were defeated, there might be a relatively longer lull til the next attack. The Empire never seemed to have that war hysteria and existential fear of invasion and conquest that hung over the Alliance, probably because the Empire's territory was never violated before the Alliance took Iserlohn. Also a lot of the Imperial forces were effectively tied up by the high nobles as their effective private armies and the Imperial military was riddled with courtly intrigues and noble patronage, as well as rampant corruption. The Empire was also involved in a lot of space castle building as evidenced by all the fortresses in the Empire. So I would say the drain on the Empire took the form of corruption, pointless expenditure of resources on bloated projects like fortresses, forces being tied down garrisoning these fortresses or other noble territory. Battlefield losses and drain seemed to be on the order of Dagon and 2nd Tiamat once in a generation, with the rest of the time in between being many minor strategically pointless battles and skirmishes like Arlesheim rather than big defeats like the Alliance's failed Iserlohn offensives. Iracundus 10:49, 16 July 2014 (UTC)
Here's a thought about Westerland. In the OTL, Kircheis was too far to really know what happened until he heard rumours. In this timeline, just slightly different, Kircheis (or another higher-ranked officer, Mittermyer or Reuentahl) had forces marshalling in the area, which detected the enemy and, seeing what was about to happen, attacked them and stopped the assault, with the few nukes that were launched being intercepted by blanket fire. This is not disobeying orders, its a perfectly natural reaction Now, any of the three would notice the recording devices sent, and would learn of their origins. At this point, making the logical connection, eventually the three would talk about this, troubled by the possibilities. Would the verbal row between Kircheis and Reinhard be changed by this? FPA Forever
Oberstein would be more likely to be in trouble as he had sent those recon ships after telling Reinhard the wrong time. Reinhard only went along because it had already occurred, and assumed de facto responsibility since he could not be seen to be having a subordinate mislead him. Iracundus 01:55, 17 July 2014 (UTC)
In Chapter Ten of the first LOGH novel, Yang had hypothesized two ways of taking advantage of the upcoming Imperial Civil War. Yang's first idea was to team up with the Lippstadt League to pincer Reinhard and kill him before turning around and destroying the High Nobles immediately afterwards. Yang's second idea was to provide Duke Braunschweig with strategies that would allow the Lippstadt forces to fight Reinhard on and even level before striking them both after they'd reached the point of exhaustion.JudgeKing 05:17, 2 August 2016 (UTC)
I think neither strategy would have been likely to work given the mentality of the Lippstadt nobles. They would have viewed any direct alliance with the Alliance and its rebel commoners with disgust because the nobles were full of pride and over confidence. They did not take Reinhard seriously and Duke Braunschweig was already looking at the expected power struggle against Marquis Littenheim, as if Reinhard's defeat was a certainty. Marquis Littenheim did not bother with strategy during his battle because he thought sheer numbers would win. The nobles thought the war would be like knights charging down disorganized peasants that would break and run in terror like a mob. That is why Merkatz and Staaden struggled with hotheaded nobles that would not listen, because they were so convinced that waiting instead of charging blindly out meant being a coward. Any action by the Alliance would IMO have had to be directly against Reinhard's forces, by either directly attacking them, or by feinting and threatening to attack, thereby forcing Reinhard to devote some forces to guard against the Alliance. The Lippstadt nobles would probably have viewed this as destiny helping them or Reinhard being a coward, and then they might still have done something rash. Iracundus 12:58, 2 August 2016 (UTC)

By the way, what do you guys think would be the ramifications, if Rebello's new party, being the 'middle ground' between the War Party and Peace Party, managed, in part because Yang would firmly endorse it (Yang does it because he doesn't think the Peace Party can sway a majority, and anyway still doesn't quite realize the extent of his public appeal), to win the 797 Elections, putting his party in control, at least for a few years? Does is help the Alliance to have political moderates at the helm? FPA Forever

Depends on what this moderate party's position is on various issues. The Alliance's problem is it has been turning into a fascist military and police state in everything except name, due to the Empire existing as a constant bogeyman with which to whip up nationalism and war hysteria, and to demand yet more sacrifices from the population in the name of national security. The Alliance needs to secure its borders but not at the cost of further ruinous military spending and prioritization, which risks turning the Alliance into a version of North Korea. For most of the war, the Alliance was caught in this bind of having an enemy that was ideologically incapable of negotiating or accepting peace with what it saw as "rebels". Reinhard's government, in the OTL, appears more practical than the old Goldenbaum dynasty and dealt with the Alliance as a de facto independent state, even though formal recognition only came right before dissolving the Alliance. For the moderates to be successful, they would have to be able to overcome the war propaganda image of the Empire as evil incarnate, the whole idea of the Alliance somehow crusading and liberating the people of the Empire, and to secure the borders at an acceptable price. They would also have to overcome the entrenched vested interests that benefit from the situation such as military contractors or politicians. Politicians don't even have to be overtly corrupt and embezzling to be opposed to these moderates. They may be opposed to reduction in military spending because military spending generates jobs and income for their districts (so they may genuinely care for their constituents just in a short sighted way), or because they genuinely believe the only way to hold off the Empire is a military first policy.
That was where Dwight Greenhill and the NSMC had failed in the OTL. Their idea of solving the problems in the Alliance was to further turn it into a fascist state, run by the military, and to divert even more manpower and resources into rebuilding the military so that it could stand militarily against the Empire. In doing so, even if they had been successful, they would have destroyed the very Alliance they were trying to protect. Iracundus 00:47, 18 July 2014 (UTC)

How do you think I should play the 797 Elections? Its an important element in my story, and I want to make sure there's something in it.

Option 1: The Trunicht Party wins the elections as a Majority Party, with the Rebello Party as the second party with the most votes and thus, the opposition.

Option 2: The Trunicht Party wins, but as a minority party, with the Rebello Party nearly equal in votes. Thus, its unable to apply many of its more extreme policies due to having to navigate political currents.

Option 3: The Rebello Party wins, but is able to hold the majority only through its coallition with the Peace Party. Although the latter's portion of the votes is insignificant compared to the former, Rebello, Hwan and others of the new party will have to make concesssions to the small party, and at the same time fight political and non-political schèmes from Trunicht's Party, which would still be strong.

Option 4: As Option 1, except with the two parties reversed.

I'll be honest, I think that Option 3 is the most desirable narratively, and I'm leaning towards it. Here are my reasons.

First off, it puts Rebello in charge of the Alliance, but its a very different situation. In the OTL, he was put in charge of what was little more than a puppet government, entirely at the mercy of the Empire's whims. It caused Rebello to undertake increasingly illegal actions that completely went against his honorable, honest streak, eventually causing his sanity to degrade, to shut out the few men who really sought to help him, and lead him to his execution (which he faced, lets admit it, with a lot of dignity, regaining his old self at the very end).

But in this, the Alliance is in bad shape, but its not conquered, and its still salvageable. Here, Rebello would have to make questionnable decisions, but he'd be able to follow his own beliefs as well. I think it'd be fun to see a Rebello Administration that isn't a joke.

Having to satisfy the Peace Party, which has understandable to but not exactly reasonable anti-war aims (Rebello and Hwan appreciate the idea of peace, they just don't see the Empire agreeing to anything of the sort, if only on principle), would be difficult. It'd be interesting to see that the war has taken such a life of its own that simply stopping it would be almost impossible. Even Yang stated that the best the Alliance might hope for would be a 15-20 years truce.

Having Rebello win would also, as its been pointed out, convince Dwight Greenhill to give the government one more go, which would cause him to turn away from Lynch's poisonous words. Without Greenhill, the military insurrection would still happen, but would lose much of its potency, to the point where it'd be a 'Malcontent Uprising' rather than a 'Civil War'. This would make the Alliance's position somewhat stronger, as the Imperial Civil War would still occur, with similar losses as in the OTL.

And finally Trunicht. This guy isn't the type to stay down. Even if he lost, his party would remain powerful, with deep roots in many sectors, and that charismatic, self-interested man would certainly work to cripple the new party, even at the cost of damaging the Alliance itself.

Thoughts? FPA Forever

Option 1 is virtually OTL, with the opposition as just a token opposition, much as how Rebelo himself in the OTL was the token voice of opposition brought on board the Trunicht Administration. A de-facto fascist state still persists with just the illusion of political plurality. No matter how much Rebelo protested in the OTL, his opinions were noted and then still overruled.
Option 2 can result in political deadlock. However by this stage the Alliance needs reform, not just status quo continuation, because the Alliance cannot afford the existing levels of ruinous militarization. A deadlocked government also would vindicate the disillusioned members within the military as it would demonstrate the corruption or ineffectiveness of the civilian government continuing with no end in sight.
Option 3 is perhaps the most realistic option. Trunicht's faction has dominated for so long precisely because it does actually have supporters among part of the population, so it is unlikely that this would be suddenly overturned overnight. Any electoral victory over it would likely require a coalition between the opposition. Likewise the Empire has been used as the incarnation of evil and bogeyman for so many generations that Cold War like attitudes of hatred and distrust of the Empire and any attempts at peace would likely persist in a sizable segment of the Alliance population. Therefore it is unlikely the Peace Party would be able to achieve much on its own. Peace with the Empire may not be necessarily a formal permanent peace treaty. It might be an armistice like that between North and South Korea, who are still technically at war. Despite its ideological claim to be the sole government of humanity, the Empire seems to have had no problems with prisoner exchanges or a de facto recognition of a separate government in Fezzan by having a high commissioner there.
Option 4 is too unrealistic IMO. To expect a newly established party to suddenly achieve a landslide victory against an entrenched party (and one that engages in illegal paramilitary suppression of dissent) is a bit much.
The biggest issue is to actually turn the Alliance from its current course. From examples such as the political corruption scandals that brought down Warwick's political career, the military-industrial complex is no doubt highly profitable for corrupt individuals. From defense equipment contracts, nepotism in the promotion system, or favoritism in military assignments, the potential for corruption is likely vast and there would be powerful vested interests opposed to changing the status quo. There would also be opposition from the non-corrupt more genuinely idealistic and zealous people in the Alliance, such as those of the NSMC, who really do believe the Alliance is on a crusade against the evil Empire, and that any slackening in the war effort or reduction in military spending is defeatism and tantamount to treason. Their idea of what is good for the Alliance and their vision of the future though is what Yang opposes as it would be turning the Alliance into a replica of the Empire under Rudolf (a militarized police state that suppresses civil rights and freedom of speech), all in the name of fighting the Empire. Iracundus 09:47, 5 March 2015 (UTC)
I agree, steering the Alliance away from its course would need a lot of work, but that's for much later in the story. In fact, the main story might show only the first attempts to correct that course, since, well, the story still intends to largely cover the years when Yang Wen-li and Reinhard von Lohengramm pretty much shook civilization out of its apathy.
What I'm wondering here, is how I should portray Rebello when he actually wins? How would a Chairman Rebello who isn't pretty much an Imperial figurehead act? I'm willing to bet he'd stay an honest man at the core (I think what drove him to an emotional breakdown was how he kept going against his own principled in the OTL), but being in charge of a nation changes you, even if you are generally decent. Would he change? FPA Forever
Rebello was focused around preservation of the Alliance whatever the cost even though in the OTL that was just a shell by then. He was vested in the form (i.e. the nation of the FPA) while Yang did not care overly much about the form so long as the ideals of representative democracy survived. The potential weakness of course is that many dubious actions or measures could be self justified as for the sake of preserving the Alliance. That of course is the same weakness of the NSMC. Everyone believes their actions are justified and ultimately for the good, even Rudolf I. Rebello while having good intentions at heart also demonstrates a willingness to throw anyone under the bus if he thinks it will help the Alliance. Opponents may see his behavior as acts of betrayal and self serving while he sees his actions as regrettable necessities for the sake of the Alliance. To actually accomplish anything he will expend political capital and possibly have to cut shady deals, and he may not be able to keep his hands clean. Iracundus 08:52, 10 March 2015 (UTC)
I've always thought, myself, that Yang's strength - his ability to detach himself and see things from an historical POV - was also his weakness. Over the series, I've always felt that Yang was more concerned about how history will unfold décades or centuries later, and sometimes had trouble connecting with the here and now. For instance, Yang noted prior to Vermillion, that if he managed to kill Reinhard, the Empire would be thrown into turmoil, a civil war if things went badly enough. Julian than noted that the Empire's problems were its own, which Yang chided. At the same time, the Alliance was suffering an invasion, and trade had been disrupted so badly that Heinessen was suffering food shortages. You never see Yang being sorry about his own side's CURRENT situation, but he was greatly worried about an entirely hypothetical situation that the OTHER side might suffer.
Its a character flaw, and that's good, because Yang shouldn't be perfect. I did a scene in which Jessica angrily points out that, had Yang just shown MINIMAL will to use his tremendous mind and natural talents as a fleet commander, he'd have been LEADING the fleet at Astarte at the very least, and Lapp's chances would have been greatly increased. Yang is hurt, but doesn't fully rebuke her on that, since he's more than smart enough to see some truth to it.
Does this make sense? FPA Forever
(I have not read your story so I will just comment on your immediate query above) I would say that while you got Yang's character correct, that scene would be rather out-of-character for Jessica, since she had known Yang for too long not to not know his predilections. That is why she had said to Yang near the end of episode 2 "Please don't say anything. Jean was killed in battle. I don't hold you responsible. But war is your job, isn't it?" This shows that while she hates the war and those who perpetuates it, she also knows Yang well enough that it will be futile to accuse him of something which he would not have conceivably aimed for. For Jessica to rebuke Yang, he would have to have been in a command position right at the start of Astarte and not doing anything, not halfway through it. Glacierfairy 04:54, 12 March 2015 (UTC)
The critique in that story is that Yang could have been in a command role if he had in the past been more proactive about pushing his plans and viewpoint across in the face of resistance from the establishment, and that if Yang had been in a higher role he would have had the power to save more people. That is the big difference in OTL Yang vs. Reinhard. Yang is a thinker but has to be prodded into actually taking action, and while he bemoans the status quo, he is not driven to actively try to change it, and tries to simply survive it so he can retire to a life of quiet scholarly contemplation. Reinhard is a doer who wants to overturn the status quo and reshape it to his liking, though he is a pragmatist and not overly given to pondering the ideals and theory as Yang is. Reinhard wants power to enact change while Yang wants to avoid power and coast along quietly to retirement. Ultimately the critique boils down to "Evil triumphs when good men do nothing", though "evil" in this context is more incompetence. This critique can be just as easily applied to the Alliance government, and how those honest idealistic members are sidelined in middling powerless dead-end positions, so Yang does have a sort of logic not wanting to engage in an apparent futile struggle against the system, and does not want to assume a dictator role post civil war to push through changes. His attitude is not that hard to understand as many people hold similar attitudes today, being fully aware of the flaws in the system but too tired or apathetic to try and fight it. 11:32, 12 March 2015 (UTC)
Which begs the question: how would Yang have handled things had he not been murdered and gotten to Reinhard? Everyone in Yang's command rightly assumed that Reinhard didn't give the slightest damn about the El Facil government. Reinhard only wanted to talk to Yang, only respected Yang, and likely wouldn't have entertained a peace treaty with anyone but Yang back then. Yang, no matter how he saw it, no matter what he wanted, was pretty much seen as the leader of his faction by the Empire, and the only one they'd want to discuss terms with. How would he have managed that? FPA Forever
Yang would I think have either pushed Romsky's agenda or brought him into discussions with Reinhard. Yang fundamentally believed in separation of power between civilian government and military, with the latter being under the control of the former, and was uncomfortable with people taking him to be de facto leader of the El Facil government. The EFRG government was also uncomfortable with this fact as they saw themselves as the leaders, yet it was clearly Yang that allowed their government to exist in the face of Imperial military force. Both of their views and distrust of military leaders with proactive political views were probably shaped by the historical precedence of Rudolf I, who did what Reinhard had done, and had consolidated both military and civil power becoming first de facto dictator and then Kaiser. Meanwhile Reinhard respected competence and power, and his view of democratic rule was that it stifled true people of talent in favor of demagogues and mediocrity. So the difficulty in negotiations would have been in getting Reinhard to take the civilians officials of the EFRG seriously as more than just talking heads and figureheads, especially since Reinhard too was aware that it was Yang's military talent that was essentially propping up the EFRG. Reinhard would have wanted to talk to the "true power behind the throne" so to speak of the EFRG, and Yang would have been trying to avoid that role. The EFRG politicians in turn like the Alliance politicians before them were afflicted with the worm of suspicion, disliking their dependence on Yang, and always distrustful about whether Yang would turn into a dictator, while still conscious of the fact they needed him. The problem is Yang's personality prevents him from doing a George Washington and entering politics, though this in turn would probably have just confirmed the politicians' fears of another Rudolf in the making.
The problem long term would have been the vulnerability of any independent EFRG one system government to future Imperial invasion, due to the sheer military disparity with the Empire. Even if an armistice or peace treaty were signed, all it would take would be one of Reinhard's successors a generation or two later to get dreams of military glory and drum up a casus belli to launch another lopsided Iracundus 22:35, 13 March 2015 (UTC)

What should be the ship production rates of both sides? I aim to keep track of both sides over the years, so that, whenever either side would muster, numbers would make sense. I'm aware that the Empire likely has the greater production ability. However, the fact that the Alliance held on for 160 years shows that its own production rates must have been pretty high. Opinions on this? FPA Forever

There is not enough hard data. The Data Book gives the production time of an Alliance battleship as 4 to 6 months (and over 200,000 produced since 740 UC) , with the flagships taking 3x longer so 12 to 18 months, and cruisers taking as little as 1 to 2 months. However we do not know the production capacity of the shipyards. Moreover, one potential limiting factor may not be ship construction but availability of crew. We know from the OTL that the 11th Fleet took about 2 years to rebuild following the Third Battle of Tiamat, though that time would include things like training and not just purely construction. We also know that from the Fourth Battle of Tiamat (from looking at the screen ship casualty figures count up) that the Alliance lost over 12,000 ships yet the involved Alliance fleets seemed to be back at full strength by Astarte/Amritsar a year or so later. Once again though we do not know how much of this replacement is new construction versus re-assigning existing reserves to the front line fleets. I suspect it is more of the latter since the 2nd, 4th, and 6th Fleet were disbanded instead of rebuilt after Astarte, suggesting that normal reserves were depleted. For Rantemario, we know the Alliance dredged up 20,000 ships from existing patrol formations and old ships due for scrapping and new ships just fresh out of the yards (thematically fitting the historical theme mobilizing the young and the old), but again we do not know the proportion of actual new versus existing ships. It also introduces the issue of ship life cycle, with replenishment rates also having to contend with natural retirement and scrapping rates.
What we do know though is the battles of the OTL were ultimately outstripping the replacement rate of both nations as Reinhard's fleets shrink after the Battle of the Corridor. The Black Lancers were brought back up to strength by absorbing Fahrenheit's fleet and this fraction were still shown using standard battleships not fast battleships at Second Rantemario, suggesting that Imperial fast battleship construction and reserves were not enough to replace the losses or entirely re-equip the Fahrenheit Fleet survivors. Iracundus 20:40, 22 March 2015 (UTC)

Well, as far as the 797 Elections are concerned, I came up with this.

In the OTL, with Rebello and Hwan not being pushed quite enough to break from the party, 3,817,678,000 citizens voted. A relatively small portion of the voting-age population went to cast their ballots. The New Democratic Union (Trunicht's Party) got 58.6% of the vote, while the Peace party had 18.9%, the remaining 22.5% being split between other parties. The PP became the official opposition, but with the NDU having almost 80 percent of the seats, there was nothing to be done.

In this timeline, the Free Alliance Party, led by Rebello, was almost litterally a breath of fresh air. A moderate version of the NDU, it appealled to those who voted for the NDU out of a habit or because there was nothing else that they liked. The new party also coaxed more people to vote, with 4,708,469,000 citizens voting. Here, the FAP will get 29.4% of the vote, the NDU will have 29.0%, and the PP will have 20.9%, with the remaining 20.6% being seperated into smaller parties. Rebello will have 39% of the seats, Trunicht 33%, and the PP 13%, with the others having 15% of the seats divided between themselves.

In order to prevent Trunicht from calling another election, the FAP and PP will form a coallition government, allowing the total seats of both parties to have 52%, politically blocking the NDU, putting it as the opposition.

The thing is, I don't see Trunicht just giving up. FPA Forever

Interesting how it seems you have gone for option 4, whereas it seems most people and even your previous post seem to have favored option 3. Iracundus 14:25, 2 May 2016 (UTC)
Its a mix. The party in power makes up the High Council, true, but Rebelo's party does need the Peace Party in the House of Representatives. It will come up later. For now, focus will go to the Alliance malcontents and whether there will be a Civil War or not. How can I put it? It only looks Option 4 because the party that won the most seats makes up the High Council. However, Rebello's party can't pass any major resolutions, laws, or amendments without a majority in the House, which the previous Standford Administration had, and which the Rebello Administration does not. The Peace Party thus has significant power, since if they even just abstain from voting, Rebello is stuck. So its still largely an Option 3. FPA Forever

Alliance Technology

Was the Triglav and the Leda II considered Advanced ships for the FPA forces? FPA Forever

Yes, they were completed in 797 and 796 respectively. Triglav was meant to be first of a new class and generation of battleships and another 3 were planned but these plans were shelved after Amritsar. Leda II was part of a limited test run of a possible new mass production cruiser incorporating curved armor technology like the Brunhilde but at a cost effective level (so perhaps not as good individually but cost effective enough for many more ships while Brunhilde was always just a one off prototype). However the Alliance also never got to mass production due to economic constraints after Amritsar. There would have been time constraints as well I imagine as retooling production lines and producing new parts would have taken time and the Alliance would have been vulnerable in the meantime. Instead the Alliance prioritized construction of existing mass production designs to maximize the number of ships it could field to try and replenish the losses at Amritsar. Iracundus 01:49, 30 August 2014 (UTC)
Okay, so just for fun, here. In my story, the Battle of Dionysus is a defeat, but not the crushing blow that Armitsar was. Because of that, and this is already written in-story, HQ Chief Kubersly and Space Fleet Commander Bucock, both of them newly-promoted from the field and thus more pro-active than even Sitolet was, decide to go ahead with Triglav-Class Command Battleships and Leda-Class Cruisers being built, and since Rebello is the Chief Secretary of Finance still, they'd get the funds. Would adding such ships help the Star Fleet's overall ability to fight? FPA Forever
These designs might help bit they would not be a panacea or silver bullet that would turn the tide of the war in and of themselves. One of LOGH's themes is the battles are not won by some overwhelming technological advantage. Even Brunhilde would have fallen to the massed guns of Yang's older ships at Vermilion if they had massed fire. That said, the Leda class cruisers would have been superior to the existing cruiser in just about all characteristics, though they would still have been cruisers so would presumably still not be for straight slugging matches against Imperial battleships. If they were concentrated into groups they would probably have greater effect than if they were sprinkled throughout the fleet. Ultimately I still think only a small number could be made within the time constraints of the story due to the need for mass retooling of shipyards. The same goes for the Triglav. The Ajax class took 12 to 18 months per ship and that is with a planned production plan with extensive automation and modular parts for a class that would be effectively the standard flagship class for the entire Star Fleet. The first Triglav was a test completed in 797 so even if the Star Fleet orders more right after I do not see any following ships being completed til 798 or 799 at earliest. I would also think there would be a similar political debate about spending on what might appear luxury projects with uncertain cost-benefit ratios or projects with returns only in the future vs known benefit of producing more of the proven older designs. These projects could also arguably be viewed as another example of the bloating and rampant spending of the Alliance military. Iracundus 07:19, 30 August 2014 (UTC)
This is yet another thing that shows that, like David Weber and his Honor Harrington stories, Tanaka was pretty one-sided in the Lucky breaks each side had. Once in power, Lohengramm never had any money problems, never had social problems, never had drains of any kind, even though they'd been through a civil war themselves, and even though 80% AND a major fortress had been destroyed at Eight Iserlohn. Despite these things, Lohengramm was able to fully finance, again without any drain that we could see. 180,000 warships, with almost 40,000 support ships and no drain. Their supply lines get savaged, one fleet is almost destroyed, two more damaged, and no drain. And even after all of that, you can see that Lohengramm can still spend on new warship designs, and there's never a hint that this is frivolous, even though by that point, the beaten Alliance wasn't strong enough to make such new construction necessary. Even though the Alliance's economy is stated to be nearly the equal of the Empire despite all of the problems, the Financial drains are huge, there's personnel shortages that don't even make sense (I never bought the plot point about a 13 bllion population unable to keep 60 million in the field and even if I did, how come the Empire doesn't even seem to feel ANY drain?). One-sided, entirely.
And even the social aspects were one-sided, with democracy being much more often derided than despotism, to the point that even Yang gushing over Reinhard's New Empire, and admitting that its almost perfect, and those protecting democracy pretty much saying 'Man, what a rotten system we're protecting' over and over.
Well, then, it seems to me that the only way to have an Alliance Intelligence operation (probably having Bagdash in it), managing to find the money the High Nobles hid away, and transfer those funds to the Alliance treasury. Would that help? FPA Forever
In the original timeline, much of the Empire's locked up wealth was released with the confiscation of the nobles' estates, but even then if you do a ship count, the numbers gradually taper down near the end of the series (the Imperial forces at the Battle of Shiva are about half that of the Battle of the Corridor) and Oberstein criticizes Reinhard's repeated expeditions for the sake of honor as being a drain on the treasury and a waste of lives. While there are a few new flagships, the New Galactic Empire also never puts a new mass production design into service in the course of the story. Reinhard's large fleet sizes were also possible because the Lippstadt League's forces defected rather than being destroyed or damaged, meaning those standardized ships could be absorbed directly into the Reinhard's fleets. The whole talk of building two fortresses on either end of Fezzan for example I took to be more of a paper exercise and it is not stated whether they were actually built. I doubt they would be given Hildegard is in control at the end and given the lack of need for such massive military expenditure in a time of peace.In summary, I think Reinhard's ability to field such massive fleets was a time limited unsustainable thing, possible only because of the infusion of funds and ships from the defeated Lippstadt nobles, and the shrinking Imperial force sizes near the end show this surplus was being used up faster than new construction was replacing.
As I stated in the above post, I do not think it merely just a matter of cash (and cash is just symbolic representation of the labor and resources of a society. The effect of Spanish New World silver being brought to Europe was inflation not wealth since currency supply had increased while society's true wealth had not) but also one of time. Even if the Alliance puts in orders for new ships, it will take time to retool for mass production, and in the limited time frame of the story, I do not think there is time to produce more than a few ships. Leda II took 15 months to construct versus the 1 to 2 months of the existing cruiser. If these new ships are then sprinkled throughout fleets, then there is I think an insignificant increase in combat power as compared to if they were to be concentrated in a sort of cruiser equivalent to Bittenfeld's Black Lancers. Iracundus 19:18, 30 August 2014 (UTC)
Then I guess the FPA Civil War being quite a bit shorter and more of a major stirring of malcontents (since Dwight Greenhill won't participate), while a lack of Westerland (ironically, because of Kircheis) making the Imperial Civil War last longer and being much more costly, would be a better tool to even things out a bit? FPA Forever
Yes, that would be a more subtle way of doing so. If Merkatz and Fahrenheit get a chance to put up more of a fight, and if there is no Westerland, then the Lippstadt forces will end up being more destroyed than surrendered intact, and likewise the wear and tear on Reinhard's forces will be greater. If the Lippstadt cause is not decisively and publically discredited with Westerland, it could also mean there is not the same surge of Imperial enlistment when the Goldenbaum exile government is setup in the Alliance (assuming that still happens in your alternate timeline). It could even mean ironically enough some Lippstadt military forces fleeing into the Alliance with Merkatz. Iracundus 21:57, 30 August 2014 (UTC)
That's a possibility. How many would follow Merkatz, however? And would the Alliance forces countenance a large Imperial force Inside their territory anyway? FPA Forever
One battleship's worth of people followed him in the original timeline, though most of those it seems did not want to join the Goldenbaum Imperial government in exile's cause. I could see a few more staunch Goldenbaum loyalists following Merkatz if there were no Westerland. You are right though in that the Alliance would not be likely to allow such a large armed Imperial force into its territory unless they were disarmed first. Iracundus 15:33, 31 August 2014 (UTC)

Then in a drawn-out Imperial Civil War, where Merkatz and Fahrenheit manage to implement their own defensive strategy (due to the High Nobles having lost face a bit and grudgingly letting the two have their way - for now), what losses do you think would each of the main factions get before Lohengramm wins? I was thinking 60% losses for Lippstadt, 20% losses for Lohengramm. Even with Merkatz and Fahrenheit's best efforts, they're facing Lohengramm, Kircheis, Mittermyer and Reuentahl. 3 to 1 loss ratios would be the best I think they could manage. As for the ships accompanying Merkatz into exile... would 2000 be too many? Thoughts? FPA Forever

Merkatz and Fahrenheit both wanted to employ a Fabian strategy of avoiding major battle except on their terms and of fighting a long war to strain Reinhard's supply lines. This conflicted with the nobles' desire for glory in battle and they chafed at what they perceived as skulking and cowardice at commoners. Probably Reinhard's second tier admirals (i.e. not Mittermeyer and Reuentahl) would be Merkatz's targets, and the supply lines. 2,000 ships is not too many. It is enough to be significant but not so big that an Alliance numbered fleet could not overwhelm them. Iracundus 21:51, 31 August 2014 (UTC)
In the event of Rebello winning the 797 Élections, would he, being more aware of Lohengramm's cunning than Trunicht, move differently about an Imperial Government-in-Exile? And would Merkatz's group blowing Geiesburg Fortress up as a last gesture of deviance change a lot to Lohengramm's warplans? FPA Forever
There are more and more maybe's and if's depending on where you go with the story. Either the Imperial government in exile is still accepted into the Alliance, which then gives a reason for Reinhard to launch renewed attacks on the Alliance, or it is rejected and stays in Fezzan, in which case Reinhard has reason to attack Fezzan. If the Alliance still acceptes the exile government, if the Lippstadt cause is not decisively discredited with a Westerland equivalent, then there may not be as big support and mobilization by the Empire's population in favor of Reinhard. Either way, I see Geiersburg Fortress as essentially superfluous as it is a fortress, with no permanent civilian population, and therefore its destruction would make little difference to warplans aside from removing the option of making it mobile. Sure, its spectacular destruction can be viewed as demoralizing and drained popular support in the Empire away from an immediate renewed war with the Alliance in the OTL at least until the Imperial government in exile gave new motivation, but I do not see its presence or absence really changing the overall direction of how things go, just what form events take. 09:25, 9 September 2014 (UTC)
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