User talk:FPA Forever

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Hello!

Hey there, just wanted to say welcome, and thanks in advance for your contributions. If you have any questions, feel free to leave a message on my talk page (or any other talk page, for that matter) :)  ♥ kine @ 00:42, 12 December 2011 (UTC)

Ideal to Fight For story

As some of you know, I'm doing an Alliance-centric story. I want to make it a somewhat more realistic story, where the Alliance isn't entirely doomed and where there are some people still trying to save it. However, I also don't want the characters to behave outside of their basic personality. Yang, at the core, should still be Yang, Attenborough should still be Attenborough, etc. So if I seem to be going the wrong way with a character, please tell me, that'd be a great help. FPA Forever

• earlier posts saved and cut*

The issue of the Empire and Fezzan must be addressed. What is the final state of the Empire if Reinhard dies of his disease in 801 UC? Is there a succession plan in place? If not, then I can see the risk of warlordism appearing between reformist and old status quo nobility factions if the Lippstadt League has any residual support. If Westerland never happens, then they might. Also if Westerland never occurs, Reinhard might not have gotten together with Hilda, meaning no baby Alex. If the Empire goes through another period of civil war or even a semi-permanent fracturing, then the Alliance would get a breather. Most of Reinhard's subordinates at the end of the day are military men, with little political experience or interest. Some of them might still want a war with the Alliance as war offers them a chance for career advancement (which is the driving motivation behind Grillparzer, Sombart, and Thurneysen) but they could get their war with a civil war, and also they would not have the sheer concentrated military advantage of having the entire Empire's resources at their disposal. If the Goldenbaums got back control (or some coalition of old guard nobility and reformists), the war with the Alliance would resume on ideological grounds since the Alliance by definition are "rebels" and because the war again offers an outlet for the nobles to strut around and gain more political power (and embezzle wealth).

Fezzan's actions as I have already said would also be critical as Rubinsky was trying to overturn the balance of power. For situations to return to some sort of balance, Rubinsky either has to change his mind or get replaced. Fezzan's economic stranglehold also means the Alliance is straining under a huge debt burden which constrains what spending and reforms can be done even by well meaning Alliance politicians. Simply repudiating the debt or nationalizing assets is likely not an option for the Alliance, unless they want to trigger economic instability and uncertainty from the private sector. After all, why risk doing business if the government may decide to step in and seize everything at any time?

There is the final issue of the Alliance military. Iserlohn Fortress remaining in Alliance hands would mean an end to the endless Imperial raids and expeditions of the past. However the Alliance military spending and its voracious consumption of all resources and human talent is the bigger issue. The Empire has been set up as the big evil enemy in propaganda for so long, even the military buys into it. The NSMC while wanting to sweep away the corruption of the civilian government, was looking essentially to replace it with a military junta to channel even more resources to rebuild the military in order to carry on the war with the Empire. The Alliance fought originally to preserve its independence and way of life, but the sacrifices and compromises it has made means there is less and less of that to preserve. The military industrial complex of the Alliance appears out of control, and it may be politically costly to suggest budget cutbacks due to the economic effects on communities reliant on military contracts and also on the PR issue of appearing to let down veterans that have served the country. 22:38, 11 May 2014 (UTC)

Well, Rebello and Hwan are going to take most of the moderates and the few liberals in their party and form a new party, which Bucock and Yang (the latter reluctantly and only because he sees Trunicht as the worst possible man to put in charge of the Alliance) will support it. Private financing that Rebello knows through his contacts will allow it to compete on a moderate Platform, calling for a return to defensive operations only, not to peace (which isn't popular at this point), or to assault (which lost most support. Rebello will target the tired, middle-ground population and those tired of the clashes between 'War Party' and 'Peace Party'. The PKC will be a problem, but HQ Chief Kubersly will send trusted Special Forces unit out, in plain clothes, to ensure things proceed smoothly. Irregular, but Kubersly would be well aware of the corruption, and would decide to take a risk.

To me, this would be a good, credible opponent for Trunicht, no? He's a great snake and politician, but his party has taken a hit, and he'd be stuck with people who voted FOR the Invasion in the first place making up the bulk of his party. FPA Forever

So Kubersly doesn't get shot by Falk? As for Trunicht, I don't think he was ever truly "War Party" (or whatever the real party name is), and was always more opportunist jumping aboard whatever path would advance himself. Remember he hedged his bet by voting against the invasion, despite being Secretary of Defense. Afterwards, when he became High Council Chairman, all the other members except Rebello were effectively Trunicht's lackeys. I think Trunicht only supported the war party line because he had the PKC and because he could use the excuse of patriotism/nationalism to clamp down on free speech (i.e. anyone opposing whatever Trunicht wants). The true hardline pro-war people are probably more the NSMC people. Legrange strikes me as one of these genuine true believers. I think the reason the war party got so powerful in the first place is because past invasions and the threat of future invasions have kept the Alliance in a climate of fear, not to mention the Empire historically was the evil bogeyman that the Alliance founders fled from. Even if the propaganda has worn thin after so many decades for the average person, it cannot be denied that the Empire did invade multiple times so it may genuinely be hard to argue for a lasting peace treaty as opposed to an unofficial "Cold War" stand-off, or against yet more militarization to replace the Alliance fleet losses. However it could also be hard to argue why the Alliance should intervene at all in an Imperial civil war, instead of letting the nobles intrigue and fight it out among themselves. Of course there is this Shadow Group and whatever goal they are after. Iracundus 06:50, 13 May 2014 (UTC)

First off, I apologize for my belatedness but I have been incredibly busy these last two weeks. Also, I need to mention that I have only read FPA Forever's posts to keep my own viewpoint free of influence from Iracundus, because let's be honest, he's almost always right about anything LOGH related and after reading his posts I would likely be inclined to agree with what he said. So, keeping that in mind, this is my postulation of possibilities that would allow you to arrive at your goal of having a stalemate in 845 UC between the Alliance and Empire.

The option I would recommend is to go with the new party idea you have, with Bucock leading the military brass, and Yang, into general alignment with Rebelo's new moderate party. I suggest that this comes not after the coup, but before, and have it be used as the main cause for the building animosities between the so called peace and war parties, especially when/if the peace party aligns itself with Rebelo. The war party is further and further isolated, leading to a breaking point, which of course would be Lynch who had been working to join together the disgruntled soldiers and sailors towards a coup. As far as Greenhill, remember he only joined the coup in order to prevent it from spiraling out of control. So if he were in the same position when the new coup came about at a later date, he would likely act in a similar fashion. The way to fix this is with the invasion of the Empire. I say that the moment that should be the beginning of the diverging timeline is when Bucock is requesting Lobos order the withdrawal before it's too late. Lobos was napping and Greenhill was the one speaking with Bucock. When I first saw this particular scene I remember drawing comparisons with Hitler and when Rommel could not get permission to mobilize units because Hitler was napping during the Normandy landings. I also remember thinking that just as that was the final chance for Germany to prolong the war in any meaningful way, that must have been the last chance for the Alliance to prolong the war in any meaningful way. That brings about another point that should be addressed real quick: the Alliance's fate was sealed after Ashbey was killed. They could only hope to prolong the war after that, simply because a united Empire can outproduce, outman, and outgun the Alliance, which was already straining under the weight of the long war. By the time of the invasion, Rebelo makes it clear that the Alliance is exceeding its limits. This brings Fezzan into the picture, but I'll go over that in a bit. That point aside, I think you have Greenhill take some kind of action after his conversation with Bucock, allowing him to be reprimanded by Lobos but his action(s) still saved the remaining fleets, the 5th, 8th, and 13th if I recall. With those fleets and the 1st and 11th, again if I correctly recall, and Iserlohn, the Alliance should be able to adequately defend both corridors and allow your Alliance centric story to take place.

The coup should be triggered after the pro-war politicians and military feel they are forced to act for fear of total isolation and removal from politics. The PKC stages a large number of attacks. Falk shoots Kubersly and everything starts. In response, the NSMC moves to secure key facilities for "protection" while the PKC goes on to target the anti-coup power holders. Greenhill would not get involved because of his celebrity status after undermining Lobos to save a few fleets. He would likely still be under court-martial or awaiting trial and he would want to see that through to its resolution. As you said the coup will not last too long without the leadership of Greenhill and would only work to further solidify the moderate party's position. However, here is where I think you may have misjudged something. Trunicht is not outwardly anything except for politician. He is capable of riding any wave of bureaucracy for his own advancement, beit an autocracy or democracy. Because of this, there is no way that I see him holding firm with the war party after the coup, or that he was even pro-war at all, only wanting it for his own advancement. He only used the PKC for his own benefit as with Terraism, and he never showed any true adherence to either's ideals. Because of this I think he should remain very much in play in the story, as he would surely attempt to pass himself off as a moderate to garner the most public support, and even though Rebelo, Bucock, Greenhill, and Yang can all see through it, there is little to stop Trunicht, unless you want to have one of those characters, or someone affiliated with them, take drastic action that would surely be illegal and dishonorable, something I doubt any would partake in. This way, you still have an antagonist within the Alliance political structure and it is not a single party but Rebelo's moderates and Trunicht's party following a perverted version of Rebelo's logic.

Next is Fezzan and Terraism. Rubinsky was already holding plans to destabilize the situation, and honestly many of those close to him were attempting to do the same thing. So, noting that, I think you should have Fezzan be conquered by Reinhard after he wins the Civil War. It really doesn't matter what level of involvement the Alliance plays in the conflict, Reinhard would win. I also think Markatz and Fahrenheit would still end up where they did, and the nobles would still lose all support even without Westerland, simply because their views of human rights were archaic and at times barbaric. While that was true for much of the Empire's history, it is clear that the Imperial citizenry, now given rights by Reinhard, would see the clustering of nobles and how they treated their subjects as a common cause and move to support Reinhard. The noble supporters would have the means to flee to Fezzan and then defect to the Alliance. The nobles that were capable and fair rulers would not be targeted by Reinhard, and seeing such justice after witnessing little would have Reinhard be just as popular one way or another. Since you want the Civil War lengthened, then having Reinhard stop Westerland seems like the best option, but even if the Alliance intervened, you can't hope to realistically portray the Lipstadt League surviving through 798 UC. There's just no way short of killing Reinhard. However, when he wins and eventually invades, have Fezzan be conquered but since the Alliance now has more strength and eliminated debt, they should be able to neutralize the Empire's larger numbers in the corridors. They may not even need to reinforce Iserlohn. In this way you may be able to force a stalemate until Reinhard dies, but there's a few other things that could help it along. Unfortunately I ran out of time typing this up but I will finish what I have started here later today or tomorrow. Strayor 18:07, 13 May 2014 (UTC)

One thing to consider is the internal structure of the Alliance. Although Heinessen stands at 1 billion, a small-population world like El Facil at 3 million, and a frontier, largely failed colony like Econia at 100,000, how big should other main worlds be, such at the ones the NSMC took over? Are they all as corrupt as Heinessen had become, you think? And how does Heinessen manage to control the FPA, given its only 1 world and its only 7.6% of its population? FPA Forever